Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has released its seasonal outlook for the coming months, and for those dreaming of patio season and beach days, the news is promising.
After a chilly and damp April followed by a roller coaster start to May, meteorologists are pointing toward a rapid shift later this month. Covering the period from May through July 2026, the latest probabilistic models indicate that southern Ontario is very likely to experience a summer that trends warmer than usual. While the early spring moisture has helped replenish soil and local waterways, the forecast suggests a pivot toward much drier conditions as summer approaches.
According to the ECCC’s latest data, the GTA and the majority of southern Ontario have a 40 to 60 per cent chance of seeing above-normal temperatures as we head into the heart of summer. Northwestern Ontario is looking at an even higher probability, with a 60 to 70 per cent chance of seeing temperatures rise above the seasonal average.
This trend is driven by a transition from the cooling influence of La Niña to neutral conditions, with the potential for a “global furnace” El Niño event to develop later in the year. The ECCC also notes that the risk of extreme weather often follows record-breaking temperatures. For Torontonians, this means the mild, jacket-weather days of early May could quickly give way to intense heatwaves and unseasonably high humidity.
As any Ontarian knows by now, we should be prepared for anything. For more details on the 90-day predictions, check out the ECCC’s latest temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts here on their website.
