Is a white Christmas in store for Toronto? While it may be too soon to tell, the stage is being set for a more traditional winter this holiday season!
In Toronto, while we enjoyed an unusually mild fall, we’re now experiencing a sudden and dramatic shift to a colder and snowier December, driven by a displaced piece of the polar vortex supplying intense bursts of Arctic air.
According to The Weather Network, major cities across Ontario including Toronto, Windsor, and Ottawa will see daytime temperatures steadily drop below freezing for the first week of December. With lingering winds, the “feels-like” temperatures in Southern Ontario cities, including Toronto, will range between -5 to -15 degrees Celsius.
Meanwhile, Northern Ontario, already experiencing sub-zero temperatures, will face some of the coldest air from this outbreak, with wind chills potentially reaching -10 to -30 C. This initial cold snap will be followed by a brief period of warmer air, but a second burst of Arctic air is expected by the mid- to late week.
This second round is forecast to bring the coldest weather of the season so far to Ontario.
An active La Niña is also expected to reinforce this pattern. Temperatures are anticipated to remain below normal through December and into January. While the second half of winter may become more variable with occasional milder stretches, the trend for the holiday period is distinctly cold. The Farmers’ Almanac predicts that the coldest periods will hit in mid- and late December, meaning the week of Christmas could be quite frigid.
The active storm track associated with this colder pattern is expected to deliver near-normal or even above-normal precipitation, which increases the probability of a White Christmas for Toronto and Southern Ontario.
While The Weather Network historically gives the Greater Toronto Area odds “about the same as a coin toss” for a White Christmas, the current pattern suggests those odds are improving this year. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has specifically forecast a White Christmas for Southern Ontario.
Winter storms, however, may occasionally be “messy,” potentially bringing ice or rain into the mix, especially later in the season around Christmas and into the new year. Travelers should prepare for snowy conditions and periodic disruptive winter events throughout the latter half of the month.